John Cochrane 10/22/25 John Cochrane 10/22/25

Trump’s Monetary Policy Desires Aren’t Crazy

Wall Street Journal Oct 22 2025. A blog post with more detail. Trump’s desire to lower interest rates, reform the Fed, and get off a cycle of borrowing abroad to finance consumption are not as crazy as conventional wisdom describes.

John Cochrane 8/6/25 John Cochrane 8/6/25

Fed Questions

Questions we should be asking of aspiring Fed Chairs. Wall Street Journal op-ed

John Cochrane 5/10/25 John Cochrane 5/10/25

A new strategy to fight inflation

Wall Street Journal Oped May 9 2025. Advice for the strategy review. Don’t just polish adjectives, prepare to make the hard choices ahead.

John Cochrane 3/1/24 John Cochrane 3/1/24

How Inflation Radically Changes Economic Ideas

IMF Finance and Development March 2024, also at Cato. Inflation teaches us that supply, not demand, constrains our economies, and government borrowing is limited.

John Cochrane 12/27/23 John Cochrane 12/27/23

The Federal Reserve Deserves a Pat on the Back

Wall Street Journal Oped, December 27 2023. Paying interest on reserves and providing abundant reserves is an important advance in monetary policy.

John Cochrane 8/2/23 John Cochrane 8/2/23

What we’ve learned about inflation.

WSJ oped on what theories account for 2021-2022 inflation.

Or my title, “Victory Laps.” A WSJ oped August 2 2023. How fiscal theory makes sense of inflation, and other common stories do not.

John Cochrane 7/27/23 John Cochrane 7/27/23

Is 2% really the right inflation target for central banks?

Project Syndicate July 27 2023. No. Target the price level.

Project Syndicate July 27 2023. No, target the price level.

John Cochrane 2/1/23 John Cochrane 2/1/23

The government ditched inflation-protected bonds – companies should start issuing their own

With Jon Hartley. Globe and Mail Jan 31 2023

John Cochrane 11/14/22 John Cochrane 11/14/22

The most important source of Canada’s inflation: The government borrowed more than $700-billion

Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition

Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition.

John Cochrane 8/24/22 John Cochrane 8/24/22

Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation

Wall Street Journal August 24 2022.

Wall Street Journal August 24 2022. Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation? Can inflation go away if the Fed leaves interest rates alone? Surprisingly, we don’t really know.

John Cochrane 6/28/22 John Cochrane 6/28/22

The Federal Reserve Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself

Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Ending inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together.

Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Inflation was sparked by fiscal policy. The Fed’s tool to offset that is blunt: The Fed can try to cause a little bit of recession, and hope via Phillips curve that recession lowers inflation. To end inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together, to fix the US long-run fiscal problem.

John Cochrane 4/15/22 John Cochrane 4/15/22

The end of economic illusions

Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions. Blog post

Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions and wishful thoughts. Blog post version (ungated)

John Cochrane 1/19/22 John Cochrane 1/19/22

Why Isn’t the Fed Doing its Job?

Project Syndicate Jan 19 2022. Account for the grand bailout of 2020, and think a little bit about incentives, please. Blog post

John Cochrane 12/23/21 John Cochrane 12/23/21

The Ghost of Christmas Inflation

Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect?

Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect? Future inflation will depend on future fiscal and monetary policy, and whether people believe debt will be repaid.

John Cochrane 9/17/21 John Cochrane 9/17/21

Inflation in the shadow of debt

September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post.

September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post. Raising interest rates now will raise interest costs on the debt. Raising interest rates does not lower inflation without a concurrent fiscal tightening. The Fed also faces huge internal and external obstacles to raising interest rates. Yet faith that it will do so is all that anchors inflation. A shift to long-term debt financing would solve this problem.

John Cochrane 7/26/21 John Cochrane 7/26/21

Inflation: The Ingredients Are in the Pot, and the Fire Is On

National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version

National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. A better discussion of whether inflation is coming, and the Fed repeating mistakes of the 1970s. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version

John Cochrane 6/12/21 John Cochrane 6/12/21

Whither the Fed?

A talk given at the UCSD Economics roundtable June 11 2021. Inflation, Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and a quick tour of the Fed’s entrenchment of bailouts, and forays to climate change and social justice. Youtube video here, slides here, blog post with a bit more commentary here.