IGM webpage
Visit the IGM webpage for links to lots of alternatives proposed by GSB faculty and related thoughts on how to get out of this mess. The 12 days of bailout video
Visit the IGM webpage for links to lots of alternatives proposed by GSB faculty and related thoughts on how to get out of this mess. The 12 days of bailout video
Is now the time to buy stocks?
WSJ op-ed. The average investor must hold the market portfolio of stocks and bonds. How can that possibly make sense in the current environment, especially with volatility at 50% per year? I show you how. Who should be buying more, and who should be selling more? Here is the slightly longer and more detailed manuscript, along with a short summary of research -- yes, this really is the summary of 30 years of finance research, not something I made up as I wrote it -- and answers to some common questions. Here I am on CNBC explaining it all in 20 seconds or less.
WSJ op-ed. The average investor must hold the market portfolio of stocks and bonds. How can that possibly make sense in the current environment, especially with volatility at 50% per year? I show you how. Who should be buying more, and who should be selling more? Here is the slightly longer and more detailed manuscript, along with a short summary of research -- yes, this really is the summary of 30 years of finance research, not something I made up as I wrote it -- and answers to some common questions. Here I am on CNBC explaining it all in 20 seconds or less.
Introduction for Gene Fama
Gene gave a talk on the history of the efficient markets hypothesis for the American Finance Association history project. This is my introduction. I try in 6 minutes flat to say why the efficient markets hypothesis is important and a great intellectual achievement. Video of Gene's speech and event from the IGM website.
Gene gave a talk on the history of the efficient markets hypothesis for the American Finance Association history project. This is my introduction. I try in 6 minutes flat to say why the efficient markets hypothesis is important and a great intellectual achievement. Video of Gene's speech and event from the IGM website.
The Monster Returns
My view of the credit crunch and why the Treasury asset-purchase plan won't work. I think the focus on troubled banks misses the strength of the banking system, and the catastrophic problems in credit markets. It also appeared on the Freakonomics blog.
My view of the credit crunch and why the Treasury asset-purchase plan won't work. I think the focus on troubled banks misses the strength of the banking system, and the catastrophic problems in credit markets. It also appeared on the Freakonomics blog.
Mortage Bailout
A letter to Congress against the TARP plan to buy sick mortgages. Luigi Zingales and Paloa Sapienza get credit for organizing this, with help from Anil Kashyap and Rob Shimer. Disclaimer: This letter was sent to Congress on Wed Sept 24 2008 regarding the Treasury plan as outlined on that date. It does not reflect all signatories' views on subesquent plans or modifications of the bill. A nice map showing where signatories come from courtesy of Mark Stouffer. Before anyone gets as swell head, it's worth reading the petition against Smoot-Hawley signed by 1028 economists.
A letter to Congress against the TARP plan to buy sick mortgages. Luigi Zingales and Paloa Sapienza get credit for organizing this, with help from Anil Kashyap and Rob Shimer. Disclaimer: This letter was sent to Congress on Wed Sept 24 2008 regarding the Treasury plan as outlined on that date. It does not reflect all signatories' views on subesquent plans or modifications of the bill. A nice map showing where signatories come from courtesy of Mark Stouffer. Before anyone gets as swell head, it's worth reading the petition against Smoot-Hawley signed by 1028 economists.
Milton Friedman Institute
The proposed Milton Friedman Institute made the news, thanks to a faculty protest letter. The letter is an interesting insight into academia, even here, with its talk of the “neoliberal global order,” “service of globalized capital,” “substitution of monetization for democratization.” I wrote a set of critical comments that got some press and amused my friends.
The protesters created a website (2014: alas apparently defunct, too bad, it was fun), and there is now a new website FriedmanFacts.com debunking them (2014: now hijacked to some nefarious marketing company). Gary Becker wrote an insightful blog post. In October 11 2008 I wrote a response to a new petition (2014: alas, now also seems to have vanished from the internet) against MFI.
All this is ancient history. The Institute, now named the Becker-Friedman institute, is up and running supporting all sorts of interesting research.
The proposed Milton Friedman Institute made the news, thanks to a faculty protest letter. The letter is an interesting insight into academia, even here, with its talk of the “neoliberal global order,” “service of globalized capital,” “substitution of monetization for democratization.” I wrote a set of critical comments that got some press and amused my friends.
The protesters created a website (2014: alas apparently defunct, too bad, it was fun), and there is now a new website FriedmanFacts.com debunking them (2014: now hijacked to some nefarious marketing company). Gary Becker wrote an insightful blog post. In October 11 2008 I wrote a response to a new petition (2014: alas, now also seems to have vanished from the internet) against MFI.
All this is ancient history. The Institute, now named the Becker-Friedman institute, is up and running supporting all sorts of interesting research.
Efficient Markets Today
Efficient Markets Today Talk given at the Conference on Chicago Economics. A second “discount rate” revolution has followed the first efficient-markets revolution, and dramatically changes how we think about financial markets. Alpha and beta are dead.
Efficient Markets Today Talk given at the Conference on Chicago Economics. A second “discount rate” revolution has followed the first efficient-markets revolution, and dramatically changes how we think about financial markets. Alpha and beta are dead.
Comments on the credit situation
Comments on the credit situation given at the GSB Global Financial Markets Forum, Sept 25 2007. Some good aspects of the current situation, some unheralded aspects of the Fed’s policy, some things that went wrong, and the downside of some quick fixes. Video of the event.
Comments on the credit situation given at the GSB Global Financial Markets Forum, Sept 25 2007. Some good aspects of the current situation, some unheralded aspects of the Fed’s policy, some things that went wrong, and the downside of some quick fixes. Video of the event.
Earlier Comments on the credit situation
Given at the GSB Global Financial Markets Forum. Some good aspects of the current situation, some unheralded aspects of the Fed’s policy, some things that went wrong, and the downside of some quick fixes.
Earlier Comments on the credit situation given at the GSB Global Financial Markets Forum. Some good aspects of the current situation, some unheralded aspects of the Fed’s policy, some things that went wrong, and the downside of some quick fixes.
Cost of Capital
Slides for a talk on cost of capital given at NABE conference, Sept 25 2005. The old advice to use the CAPM and 6% for cost of capital doesn’t make any sense now that we know expected returns vary over time.
Slides for a talk on cost of capital given at NABE conference, Sept 25 2005. The old advice to use the CAPM and 6% for cost of capital doesn’t make any sense now that we know expected returns vary over time.
Asset Pricing and the Equity Premium
Slides for the Smith-O’Brian Lecture, Notre Dame University, October 8 2004. (An update of several related talks)
Slides for the Smith-O’Brian Lecture, Notre Dame University, October 8 2004. (An update of several related talks)