CBO and the fiscal cliff
Bloomberg.com "Business class" OpEd. local copy ; blog post. A review of the CBO's forecast that the "fiscal cliff" will cause a recession. It's Keynesian, ignoring all incentive effects, and thus right but for the wrong reasons. Policy models should be much more transparent quantiative parables, showing the logic of their foreasts and not pretent to be authoritative black boxes.
Bloomberg.com "Business class" OpEd. local copy ; blog post. A review of the CBO's forecast that the "fiscal cliff" will cause a recession. It's Keynesian, ignoring all incentive effects, and thus right but for the wrong reasons. Policy models should be much more transparent quantiative parables, showing the logic of their foreasts and not pretent to be authoritative black boxes.
All the world's troubles in 10 minutes
Update Sept 2012. In Government Policies and the delayed Economic Recovery Lee E. Ohanian, John B. Taylor and Ian J. Wright, eds., Stanford: Hoover Institution Press (Sept 2 2012), p. 193-199. (Whole book here ; Manuscript of my comments here. ) Written version of my remarks at the Hoover Conference, "Restoring Robust Growth in America," Dec 2 2011. Europe's crisis and how the economy is a garden, needing weeding not the latest fertilizer.
Update Sept 2012. In Government Policies and the delayed Economic Recovery Lee E. Ohanian, John B. Taylor and Ian J. Wright, eds., Stanford: Hoover Institution Press (Sept 2 2012), p. 193-199. (Whole book here ; Manuscript of my comments here. ) Written version of my remarks at the Hoover Conference, "Restoring Robust Growth in America," Dec 2 2011. Europe's crisis and how the economy is a garden, needing weeding not the latest fertilizer.
Unraveling the Mysteries of Money
An extensive interview by Gideon Magnus of Morningstar, with Harald Uhlig. What is money, fiscal theory of the Price Level, European debt crisis, and more. The Video; a cleaned-up magazine article (pdf) (html)
Forget about the mandate
Bloobmerg Business Class. The health law debate needs to stop worrying about legalities. The mandate was never the central economic problem. A reminder of all the other problems, and alternatives to the health care law. (local html)
Bloobmerg Business Class. The health law debate needs to stop worrying about legalities. The mandate was never the central economic problem. A reminder of all the other problems, and alternatives to the health care law. (local html)
What to do on the Day after Obamacare
Wall Street Journal Local pdf. Deregulation and competition. Yes, it can work, even in health insurance. Mostly aimed at the widespread and incorrect view that markets can't provide health insurance.
Wall Street Journal Local pdf. Deregulation and competition. Yes, it can work, even in health insurance. Mostly aimed at the widespread and incorrect view that markets can't provide health insurance.
Austerity or Stimulus: What we need is Growth
IGM/Bloomberg Business Class series. Austerity of high taxes is hurting Europe. Lack of spending isn't their problem. Get rid of the distortions, now, is the only answer. Local pdf
IGM/Bloomberg Business Class series. Austerity of high taxes is hurting Europe. Lack of spending isn't their problem. Get rid of the distortions, now, is the only answer. Local pdf
Hedge Funds
Slides for talks about hedge funds. Returns, alphas and betas, performance, fees, how to form portfolios of hedge funds.
Slides for talks about hedge funds. Returns, alphas and betas, performance, fees, how to form portfolios of hedge funds.
The Real Trouble With the Birth-Control Mandate
Wall Street Journal. Local pdf. Critics complain that religious institutions have to buy health insurance that covers birth control. They're missing the point. Why does health and human services mandate that any and all of us have to buy health insurance that covers regular predictable expenses?
Wall Street Journal. Local pdf. Critics complain that religious institutions have to buy health insurance that covers birth control. They're missing the point. Why does health and human services mandate that any and all of us have to buy health insurance that covers regular predictable expenses?
The Fed's Mission Impossible
Wall Street Journal. (Local pdf) A review of the Fed's (the press release here, the proposal -- old link, broken -- vanished off the Fed's website) to regulate big banks -- and, soon, everyone else.
Wall Street Journal. (Local pdf) A review of the Fed's (the press release here, the proposal -- old link, broken -- vanished off the Fed's website) to regulate big banks -- and, soon, everyone else.
A continent of bad ideas
Bloomberg.com Business Class. Local pdf. Latest on the euro. "... by artful application of bad ideas, Europe has taken a plain-vanilla sovereign restructuring and turned it into a banking crisis, a currency crisis, a fiscal crisis, and now a political crisis.." Italian version, thanks to Duccio Gasparri.
Bloomberg.com Business Class. Local pdf. Latest on the euro. "... by artful application of bad ideas, Europe has taken a plain-vanilla sovereign restructuring and turned it into a banking crisis, a currency crisis, a fiscal crisis, and now a political crisis.." Italian version, thanks to Duccio Gasparri.
What Political Compromises Could Create Jobs?
Planet Money Blog Post. Nothing coming out of Washington has a hope of "creating jobs" in the next year.
Planet Money Blog Post. Nothing coming out of Washington has a hope of "creating jobs" in the next year.
Last Chance to Save the Euro
Wall Street Journal (WSJ link, requires subscription.) The ECB is buying PIGS sovereign debt, and lending massively to banks who are buying sovereign debt, taking same debt as collateral. Current proposals essentially expand this bond buying a lot, but with smoke and mirrors so you don't see it. When defaults come, Germany will either have to pour euros into the ECB, validating the fait-accompli bailout, or watch the euro inflate. Everyone thinks that the euro can't survive sovereign default. No, allowing sovereign default is the way to preserve the euro.
Wall Street Journal (WSJ link, requires subscription.) The ECB is buying PIGS sovereign debt, and lending massively to banks who are buying sovereign debt, taking same debt as collateral. Current proposals essentially expand this bond buying a lot, but with smoke and mirrors so you don't see it. When defaults come, Germany will either have to pour euros into the ECB, validating the fait-accompli bailout, or watch the euro inflate. Everyone thinks that the euro can't survive sovereign default. No, allowing sovereign default is the way to preserve the euro.
Inflation and Debt
National Affairs 9 (Fall 2011). html An essay summarizing the threat of inflation from large debt and deficits. The danger is best described as a "run on the dollar." Future deficits can lead to inflation today, which the Fed cannot control. I also talk about the conventional Keynesian (Fed) and monetarist views of inflation, and why they are not equipped to deal with the threat of deficits. This essay complements the academic (equations) "Understanding Policy" article (see below) and the short Why the 2025 budget matters today WSJ oped (see below)
National Affairs 9 (Fall 2011). html An essay summarizing the threat of inflation from large debt and deficits. The danger is best described as a "run on the dollar." Future deficits can lead to inflation today, which the Fed cannot control. I also talk about the conventional Keynesian (Fed) and monetarist views of inflation, and why they are not equipped to deal with the threat of deficits. This essay complements the academic (equations) "Understanding Policy" article (see below) and the short Why the 2025 budget matters today WSJ oped (see below)
Bubble trouble
Bloomberg View. local pdf. Part of Booth's "Business Class" series. High price-dividend ratios mean low returns and vice versa. The "bubble" argument is only about understanding why risk premia vary over time. A short oped based on "Discount Rates"
Bloomberg View. local pdf. Part of Booth's "Business Class" series. High price-dividend ratios mean low returns and vice versa. The "bubble" argument is only about understanding why risk premia vary over time. A short oped based on "Discount Rates"