The most important source of Canada’s inflation: The government borrowed more than $700-billion
Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition
Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition.
The Liz Truss Tragedy
The Liz Truss Tragedy. Project Syndicate Oct 25 2022 with Jon Hartley. Blog post version (undated)
The Liz Truss Tragedy. Project Syndicate Oct 25 2022 with Jon Hartley. Truss’ growth-oriented policy really was the only answer for the UK, but the messaging and politics doomed the effort. Blog post version (undated).
What this year’s Nobel Economists can teach us about financial crises
National Review Online Oct 15 2022. Blog post (undated)
National Review Online Oct 15 2022. The Nobel Prizes have gone for important foundational work. But we have learned since the papers were written that there is a better option to stop crises than endless bailouts. Blog post (no paywall)
Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation
Wall Street Journal August 24 2022.
Wall Street Journal August 24 2022. Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation? Can inflation go away if the Fed leaves interest rates alone? Surprisingly, we don’t really know.
The Federal Reserve Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself
Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Ending inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together.
Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Inflation was sparked by fiscal policy. The Fed’s tool to offset that is blunt: The Fed can try to cause a little bit of recession, and hope via Phillips curve that recession lowers inflation. To end inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together, to fix the US long-run fiscal problem.
The end of economic illusions
Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions. Blog post
Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions and wishful thoughts. Blog post version (ungated)
Time for supply
With Jon Hartley, Project Syndicate Mar 3 2022
With Jon Hartley, Project Syndicate Mar 3 2022
Why Isn’t the Fed Doing its Job?
Project Syndicate Jan 19 2022. Account for the grand bailout of 2020, and think a little bit about incentives, please. Blog post
Project Syndicate Jan 19 2022. Account for the grand bailout of 2020, and think a little bit about incentives, please. Blog post
The Ghost of Christmas Inflation
Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect?
Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect? Future inflation will depend on future fiscal and monetary policy, and whether people believe debt will be repaid.
Inflation in the shadow of debt
September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post.
September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post. Raising interest rates now will raise interest costs on the debt. Raising interest rates does not lower inflation without a concurrent fiscal tightening. The Fed also faces huge internal and external obstacles to raising interest rates. Yet faith that it will do so is all that anchors inflation. A shift to long-term debt financing would solve this problem.
Climate Economics
Climate Economics. Sept 3 2021 National Review Online. Blog post.
Climate Policy Should Pay More Attention to Climate Economics. September 3 2021 National Review Online. Ungated Blog Post. Climate effects on GDP are tiny compared to growth and especially to development. At least do what we do efficiently with cost benefit analyses and carbon taxes. A purely environmental case might be more persuasive — it will cost GDP, but save the planet — but again needs to be compared with spending the same money directly on today’s large environmental problems.
Inflation: The Ingredients Are in the Pot, and the Fire Is On
National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version
National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. A better discussion of whether inflation is coming, and the Fed repeating mistakes of the 1970s. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version
Whither the Fed?
A talk given at the UCSD Economics roundtable June 11 2021. Inflation, Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and a quick tour of the Fed’s entrenchment of bailouts, and forays to climate change and social justice. Youtube video here, slides here, blog post with a bit more commentary here.
A talk given at the UCSD Economics roundtable June 11 2021. Inflation, Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and a quick tour of the Fed’s entrenchment of bailouts, and forays to climate change and social justice. Youtube video here, slides here, blog post with a bit more commentary here.
The Fed and climate
“Don’t Let Financial Regulators Dream Up Climate Solutions.” City Journal, March 24 2021. Local pdf
“Don’t Let Financial Regulators Dream Up Climate Solutions.” City Journal, March 24 2021. Local pdf
Does monetary policy threaten inflation?
Does monetary policy threaten inflation? National Review Online March 9 2021. (local pdf)
Does monetary policy threaten inflation? National Review Online March 9 2021. (local pdf)
Free Markets Beat Central Planning, Even for COVID-19 Tests and Vaccines
National Review Online January 21 2021.
National Review Online January 21 2021. Even in the most textbook externality, the government allocation is worse than what markets could have achieved. Ungated blog link.
Modern Monetary Theory Review
A review of Stephanie Kelton’s “The Deficit Myth.” Wall Street Journal, June 5 2020. Ungated full text on my blog, and a pdf of the print version here.
A review of Stephanie Kelton’s “The Deficit Myth.” Wall Street Journal, June 5 2020. Ungated full text on my blog, and a pdf of the print version here.