A debt crisis is on the horizon
Washington Post. Debt and deficits are a danger. Rising interest rates could spark big trouble quickly. Reforming entitlements is the answer, and sooner better than later. Written with Mike Boskin, John Cogan, George Shultz, and John Taylor. Local copy (pdf).
Washington Post. Debt and deficits are a danger. Rising interest rates could spark big trouble quickly. Reforming entitlements is the answer, and sooner better than later. Written with Mike Boskin, John Cogan, George Shultz, and John Taylor. Local copy (pdf).
Eight Heresies of Monetary Policy
1) The Fed has not been holding interest rates down. 2) QE did basically nothing. 3) The Fed is not stoking asset price bubbles. 4) The Fed has little control over real rates 5) The economy is stable 6) Interest rates only temporarily lower inflation. 7) The Phillips curve is dead 8) Long-term fiscal policy, not Fed mistakes, pose the greatest danger to inflation. Slides.
1) The Fed has not been holding interest rates down. 2) QE did basically nothing. 3) The Fed is not stoking asset price bubbles. 4) The Fed has little control over real rates 5) The economy is stable 6) Interest rates only temporarily lower inflation. 7) The Phillips curve is dead 8) Long-term fiscal policy, not Fed mistakes, pose the greatest danger to inflation. Slides.
Law and the Regulatory State
In Thomas W. Gilligan, Ed., American Exceptionalism in a New Era, Hoover Institution Press, p. 57-70. Exceptionalism interpreted as the rule of law guaranteeing economic freedom. In peril, as always.
In Thomas W. Gilligan, Ed., American Exceptionalism in a New Era, Hoover Institution Press, p. 57-70. Exceptionalism interpreted as the rule of law guaranteeing economic freedom. In peril, as always.
Tax Consumption Through A VAT
Wall Street Journal. Local Copy.
Wall Street Journal. Local Copy.
Climate Change isn't the End of the World
Wall Street Journal with David R. Henderson. Local Copy.
Wall Street Journal with David R. Henderson. Local Copy.
Don't Believe the Economic Pessimists
Wall Street Journal. More on growth, a reaction to many voices that say growth is impossible, just give up. Local pdf
Wall Street Journal.
More on growth, a reaction to many voices that say growth is impossible, just give up. Local pdf
Trade and Immigration
An uncompromising defense of free trade and immigration. For George P. Shultz, ed., Blueprint for America Hoover Institution Press, p. 109-125.
An uncompromising defense of free trade and immigration. For George P. Shultz, ed., Blueprint for America Hoover Institution Press, p. 109-125.
Growing Risks to the Budget and the Economy
Testimony to House Budget Committee, Sept 14 2016. Economic growth is the big problem; bi-partisan policies to fix it rather than keep yelling the same talking points louder. On debt, the small probability of a debt crisis is the big problem, and how to avoid it. Oral remarks much shorter, sweeter (I get 5 minutes) but less documented.
Testimony to House Budget Committee, Sept 14 2016. Economic growth is the big problem; bi-partisan policies to fix it rather than keep yelling the same talking points louder. On debt, the small probability of a debt crisis is the big problem, and how to avoid it. Oral remarks much shorter, sweeter (I get 5 minutes) but less documented.
The Clinton Plan’s Growth Deficit
Wall Street Journal. Comments on the Hillary Clinton economic plan. See also the related blog post.
Wall Street Journal. Comments on the Hillary Clinton economic plan. See also the related blog post.
A Blueprint for Effective Financial Reform
Equity-financed banking. How it works, and substitutes for the Dodd-Frank illusion that regulators can keep us safe. This is the paper behind the talk, next item. In George P. Shultz, ed., Blueprint for America Hoover Institution Press, p. 71 - 84.
Equity-financed banking. How it works, and substitutes for the Dodd-Frank illusion that regulators can keep us safe. This is the paper behind the talk, next item. In George P. Shultz, ed., Blueprint for America Hoover Institution Press, p. 71 - 84.
Equity-financed banking and a run-free financial system
Talk given at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve's "Ending too big to fail" symposium, May 16 2016.
Talk given at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve's "Ending too big to fail" symposium, May 16 2016.
Ending America’s Slow-Growth Tailspin
WSJ oped. I try to quantify how much growth we could get out of better policy by regressing GDP per capita on the World bank's ease of doing business measure. The answer: a lot. Local pdf
WSJ oped. I try to quantify how much growth we could get out of better policy by regressing GDP per capita on the World bank's ease of doing business measure. The answer: a lot. Local pdf
Stock Buybacks Are Proof of Tax Reform’s Success
Wall Street Journal. Local Copy.
Wall Street Journal. Local Copy.
Here's what Genuine Tax Reform Looks Like
Wall Street Journal. Separate the tax code, the subsidy code, the transfer code, and the overall level of taxation. Local copy
Wall Street Journal. Separate the tax code, the subsidy code, the transfer code, and the overall level of taxation. Local copy
How and Why we Care About Inequality
In Inequality and Economic Policy: Essays in Memory of Gary Becker, Tom Church, John B. Taylor, and Christopher Miller Eds., Stanford, CA: Hoover Press.
In Inequality and Economic Policy: Essays in Memory of Gary Becker, Tom Church, John B. Taylor, and Christopher Miller Eds., Stanford, CA: Hoover Press.
A New Structure for U.S. Federal Debt
In David Wessel, Ed., The $13 Trillion Question: Managing the U.S. Government's Debt, pp. 91-146. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press. Last manuscript. I propose a restructuring of U. S. Federal debt. All debt should be perpetual, paying coupons forever with no principal payment. The debt should be composed of 1) Fixed-value, floating-rate, electronically transferable debt. Such debt looks like a money-market fund, or reserves at the Fed, to an investor. 2) Nominal perpetuities: This debt pays a coupon of $1 per bond, forever. 3) Indexed perpetuities: This debt pays a coupon of $1 times the current consumer price index (CPI). 4) All debt should be free of income, estate, capital gains, and other taxes. 5) long term debt should have explicitly variable coupons. 6) Swaps. The Treasury should adjust maturity structure, interest rate and inflation exposure of the Federal budget by transacting in simple swaps among these securities.
In David Wessel, Ed., The $13 Trillion Question: Managing the U.S. Government's Debt, pp. 91-146. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press. Last manuscript. I propose a restructuring of U. S. Federal debt. All debt should be perpetual, paying coupons forever with no principal payment. The debt should be composed of 1) Fixed-value, floating-rate, electronically transferable debt. Such debt looks like a money-market fund, or reserves at the Fed, to an investor. 2) Nominal perpetuities: This debt pays a coupon of $1 per bond, forever. 3) Indexed perpetuities: This debt pays a coupon of $1 times the current consumer price index (CPI). 4) All debt should be free of income, estate, capital gains, and other taxes. 5) long term debt should have explicitly variable coupons. 6) Swaps. The Treasury should adjust maturity structure, interest rate and inflation exposure of the Federal budget by transacting in simple swaps among these securities.
Economic Growth
Essay. An overview of what a growth-oriented policy program might look like. Regulation, finance, health, energy and environment, taxes, debt social security and medicare, social programs, labor law, immigration, education, and more. Written for the Focusing the presidential debates initiative. Published in John Norton Moore, ed., The Presidential Debates Carolina Academic Press 2016. p. 65-90.
Essay. An overview of what a growth-oriented policy program might look like. Regulation, finance, health, energy and environment, taxes, debt social security and medicare, social programs, labor law, immigration, education, and more. Written for the Focusing the presidential debates initiative. Published in John Norton Moore, ed., The Presidential Debates Carolina Academic Press 2016. p. 65-90.